TL;DR

NO-TRADE today at spot EUR 38.74. The research-manager's verdict is a staged long-bias not a directional rating: long is the right side, but the entry at the 52-week high after a +93.8% / 13-session move sits inside a documented liquidity vacuum (LVN at 34.81–35.78) with no listed options market to dampen gap risk. Today's size is 0% NAV; the name goes on the watchlist with two pre-defined trigger blueprints (preferred: pullback to 34.44–36.11 EUR on volume; acceptable: news-confirmed third bid ≥ EUR 41 with board engagement). Re-evaluate on the next leg or pullback; hard kill if Uber files formal withdrawal plus DoorDash denial wires plus EC Phase II opens within 30 days.

Source verdict

Verbatim from research-verdict.md:

Decision. NO-TRADE — wait for either (a) a pullback into the 34.44–36.11 EUR technical entry zone, or (b) a confirmed improved bid that re-defines the deal-arb spread; absent one of those, do not chase at the rejected-bid price with a stop that lives inside a documented liquidity vacuum.

Conviction. 3 / 5. First-call cap of 4 applies per memory.md (no same-ticker history; conviction 4 on a first call into a parabolic move requires exceptional evidence).

Direction & instrument

Today: NONE. No directional position taken at spot EUR 38.74. The underlying instrument when triggered will be the cash equity DHER.DE on XETRA (ISIN DE000A2E4K43). No options expression is available — options-flow.md confirms NO_DERIVATIVES_MARKET for this name, which is itself a binding reason for staged entry: there is no listed put-skew to hedge gap risk and no listed call structure to express the long with defined downside.

The forward bias is long-only. The bear won the trade-structure argument at spot but did not earn a short — the contested-process disjunction is too live, the controlled-subsidiary SOTP floor (Talabat distributable at ~EUR 4.2–4.5B) is too defensible, and shorting a contested M&A vehicle without an options market has the same gap-risk asymmetry running the other way.

Entry

Today: no entry submitted. Two trigger blueprints are pre-defined below. Both are conditional and require explicit re-arming by the trader on confirmation. Neither is a resting order.

Trigger A — preferred: pullback entry

• Method: scaled limit, three fills inside the zone (1/3 each)
• Zone: 34.44–36.11 EUR
  • 36.11 EUR = May 24 gap bottom (prior gap-up open)
  • 34.44 EUR = 23.6% Fibonacci retrace of 19.99 → 38.91 move
• Suggested fills: 35.95 EUR (top), 35.28 EUR (mid), 34.60 EUR (bottom)
• Confirmation required before re-arming: at least one daily close inside 34.44–36.11 with daily volume ≥ 1× 50-day ADV (≥ 1,470,899 shares) and one of: hammer/doji bar, sequential close above 34.44, or two consecutive closes above the zone bottom
• Validity: GTC during the 60-day primary window; re-evaluate weekly
• Rationale: Per technical.md scenario B, this is the only entry zone where the stop (31.68 EUR, 38.2% Fib) sits outside the documented LVN (34.81–35.78). Volume requirement filters out a low-volume drift through the vacuum, which technical.md and the round-2 bear both flag as the dominant failure mode

Trigger B — acceptable: confirmed third-bid entry at spot

• Method: limit, single tranche
• Catalyst conditions (BOTH must be true):
  1. News-confirmed Uber third bid at ≥ EUR 41/share with Delivery Hero board engagement language (not rejection), OR a formal DoorDash approach above EUR 40 with board engagement language (13D-equivalent disclosure / public statement)
  2. First daily close ≥ EUR 39.00 on volume ≥ 1.5× 50-day ADV (≥ 2,206,348 shares)
• Limit: EUR 39.00 (first close above 38.91 intraday high with the volume confirmation; do not chase above EUR 39.50)
• Validity: day-only on the confirmation session; if missed, revert to Trigger A or stand down
• Rationale: This is the news.md catalyst-calendar scenario (5 June – 20 June window for Uber third bid; 10 June – 15 July for DoorDash formalisation). The volume requirement of 1.5× ADV directly addresses the volume-taper exhaustion signal flagged in technical.md (May 26 close at the high on 0.2× ADV)

Stop

Today: no stop active. Stops are pre-defined for each trigger.

Trigger A stop

• Price: EUR 31.68
• Type: hard stop on daily close, market-on-open execution thereafter (intraday spikes do not stop us out — gap-down opens are the documented failure mode per technical.md, and a hard intraday stop inside the LVN will not fill near its level)
• Justification: 38.2% Fib retrace of the 19.99 → 38.91 move. Distance from entry midpoint (35.28) = 3.60 EUR = 1.9× ATR(14). Snapped below the LVN (34.81–35.78) per technical.md's explicit recommendation — a 2× ATR stop at 34.96 would sit inside the volume vacuum and is mechanically fragile. Coincides with the May 13–14 swing close range and the prior pivot region
• Stop violation = thesis impairment: a close below 31.68 on volume

  2× average is not "stopped out, re-enter lower" — per technical.md invalidation criteria, it reclassifies the regime to topping and the pullback-entry thesis is void

Trigger B stop

• Price: EUR 35.50
• Type: hard stop on daily close
• Justification: Just below 36.11 EUR (May 24 gap bottom). Accepts higher absolute slippage risk (3.50 EUR vs 3.60 EUR for trigger A, with the LVN now inside the stop distance) in exchange for an entry that already has catalyst confirmation behind it. This is why trigger B is sized smaller (0.75% NAV vs 1.0–1.5% NAV)

Targets

Trigger A targets

• T1: EUR 38.91 — 52-week intraday high (May 26). Source: technical.md, current resistance. Reward:risk to T1 from 35.28 midpoint = 1.01:1. Marginal; close half on touch
• T2: EUR 41.07 — Bollinger Band upper (20, 2σ) and consistent with the bear's revised round-1 deal-resolution band lower bound. Reward:risk to T2 = 1.61:1
• Trail rule:
  • On T1 touch: close 50% of position, raise stop to entry (35.28)
  • On close > 41.07: raise stop to 38.91 (former resistance becomes support), let runner work toward news.md / Jefferies PT (42.50)
  • On Jefferies PT reach (42.50): close remaining 50%, exit

Trigger B targets

• T1: EUR 42.50 — Jefferies price target (news.md item #6, 2026-05-26 upgrade from 29 to 42.50). R/R from 39.00 entry = 1.00:1. Tight; this is a catalyst-confirmation trade, not a measured-move trade
• T2: EUR 44.00–46.00 — bracketing the bull-case deal-resolution range from round-2 bull (Uber forced to clear the shareholder base via a third bid that auctions against DoorDash). R/R to 45.00 mid = 1.71:1
• Trail rule:
  • On T1 touch: close 50%, raise stop to entry (39.00)
  • On confirmed second formal bid above EUR 42 with board engagement: raise T2 to EUR 48 (cleared deal premium) and let runner work
  • On any deal-collapse wire (either bidder formal withdrawal): exit 100% immediately, do not wait for stop

Targets explicitly not set

• No target above EUR 46 without a second confirmed bid. The EUR 47.00 level in technical.md (2.0× measured move from 19.99 base) is a mathematical projection, not a price-anchored target. Treating it as a destination would be a prayer, not a plan.
• No "rolling target" if neither trigger fires within 60 days. The blueprint expires; re-research from scratch.

Horizon

60 trading days primary, with 4–6 month optionality (up to 180 trading days) if a Phase II EC review extends the deal timeline.

Catalyst calendar overlay (from news.md):

Re-evaluate the entire verdict if:

• No resolution (no bid escalation, no pullback into entry zone) by 2026-07-27 (60 trading days from today)
• Or earlier if any single hard-kill condition fires (see below)

Size

Today: 0.00% NAV.

The sizing skill produced sane bounds for both triggers; the binding constraint in both cases is the research-manager's first-call disciplinary cap (1.5% trigger A; 0.75% trigger B), not the fixed-fractional / vol-targeted / Kelly math. Methodology and alternatives recorded below for the journal and risk-committee audit.

Today (no trigger fired)

sizing_today:
  method_used: none
  size_pct: 0.00
  size_eur: 0
  risk_pct_nav: 0.00
  conviction: 3
  rationale: "NO-TRADE per research-verdict. No entry, no stop, no size."

Trigger A blueprint sizing (if/when fired)

sizing_trigger_a:
  method_used: research_manager_cap   # binds before min-of-methods
  size_pct: 1.50
  conviction: 3
  entry_midpoint: 35.28
  stop: 31.68
  risk_per_share: 3.60
  risk_pct_nav: 0.14            # very low: cap binds, not stop-distance
  alternatives:
    fixed_fractional_pct: 4.90  # at 0.50% NAV risk per conviction-3 schedule
    vol_targeted_pct: 4.33      # HV20 = 73.4%, 0.20% NAV daily 1σ target
    kelly_quarter_pct: 2.59     # p_win=0.55, r_win=1.01 at T1
    min_of_methods_pct: 2.59
  cap_binding: 1.50             # research-manager first-call cap
  rationale: >
    All three sizing methods produce sizes above the research-manager's
    1.5% NAV cap, so the cap binds. The cap exists for three reasons
    cited in the verdict and memory: (1) first-call rule, no DHER.DE
    history in the journal; (2) the COIN analog argues for small sized
    position on fundamentally weak platforms only when the technical
    structure is complete — DHER has no completed structure even at
    trigger A; (3) the MBG.DE entry-discipline precedent. Risk_pct_nav
    of 0.14% is well under the 1% single-trade cap; the trade is sized
    by structural caution, not by R-budget.
  caps_checked:
    single_position: 10.0       # 1.5 ≤ 10.0 OK
    single_loss: 1.0            # 0.14 ≤ 1.0 OK
    sector: 35.0                # no other European delivery exposure
    correlation: 25.0           # no HYG / mega-cap-tech overlap (memory)
    liquidity: 1_day            # << 1 day at 20% participation of 1.47M ADV

Trigger B blueprint sizing (if/when fired)

sizing_trigger_b:
  method_used: research_manager_cap
  size_pct: 0.75
  conviction: 3
  entry: 39.00
  stop: 35.50
  risk_per_share: 3.50
  risk_pct_nav: 0.07
  alternatives:
    fixed_fractional_pct: 5.57
    vol_targeted_pct: 4.33
    kelly_quarter_pct: 2.50
    min_of_methods_pct: 2.50
  cap_binding: 0.75
  rationale: >
    Smaller than trigger A by design. Entry is mid-LVN with the stop
    placed just below the May 24 gap bottom — the LVN is now *inside*
    the stop distance, so a deal-break headline can still gap-through.
    The catalyst confirmation justifies entering at all; the structural
    weakness justifies the smaller size. Half of trigger A is the
    explicit research-manager guidance.
  caps_checked:
    single_position: 10.0       # 0.75 ≤ 10.0 OK
    single_loss: 1.0            # 0.07 ≤ 1.0 OK
    sector: 35.0                # OK
    correlation: 25.0           # OK
    liquidity: 1_day            # OK

Hard-kill scenario sizing (do NOT trade)

sizing_hard_kill:
  method_used: none
  size_pct: 0.00
  rationale: >
    If all three of (Uber formal 8-K/regulatory withdrawal) AND
    (DoorDash denial-of-interest wire) AND (EC Phase II opening) fire
    within 30 days, the bull thesis is void. The research-manager
    explicitly notes a tactical short above EUR 41 absent a confirmed
    second bid is admissible but is "trader-discretion, not a
    research-manager mandate." Given (a) no options market to limit
    gap risk on a surprise re-engagement headline, (b) the
    controlled-subsidiary SOTP floor at EUR 26–28 still bounds the
    downside, and (c) first-call discipline, the trader's standing
    instruction is: do NOT initiate a short on this name. If the
    hard-kill fires, escalate to the portfolio-manager for a fresh
    /decide run, do not flip on autopilot.

Critical assumptions

These map to the research-manager's critical assumptions and are the points the risk committee should attack:

1. The 34.44–36.11 EUR pullback zone is the actionable re-engagement level. If price drives straight through to 31.68 without stabilising on volume, the long thesis is impaired and the blueprint must be re-research-ed, not re-armed at the next Fib.
2. Uber does not file a formal 8-K withdrawal within 30 days. Silence + "weighing options" reporting (news.md item #1) is consistent with continued negotiation; a public withdrawal flips this from staged-long to hard-kill.
3. Talabat does not fall more than 10% on DFM. SOTP floor depends on the EUR 4.2–4.5B Talabat stake mark. A Talabat correction concurrent with a deal stall removes the floor.
4. EMQQ does not break further to the downside (currently -11.1% over 3 months per macro-factor.md). A further -5% gives Uber cover to walk on "deteriorated EM consumer outlook."
5. Jefferies' EUR 42.50 PT is not reversed within 30 days. A Jefferies downgrade or PT cut would be the canonical sell-side flip and would convert this from "wait for entry" to "bull thesis failed."
6. The LVN at 34.81–35.78 EUR remains the dominant tape feature below current price. A return of high-volume trade through this zone before a pullback (e.g. a tape-rebuilding session that prints meaningful volume in the 34–36 band) would soften the trigger A volume requirement; absent that, the volume confirmation is non-negotiable.
7. No earnings interim release before 2026-08-27. If management pre-announces H1 2026 numbers in response to the bidding process, that is a separate catalyst and the blueprint must be re-evaluated.

Thesis-invalidating events

Distinct from price stops. If any of these fires, exit (if positioned) or stand down (if not yet positioned) immediately, regardless of price level:

• Hard kill (verdict reversal trigger): Uber files a formal withdrawal (8-K or BaFin disclosure) AND a DoorDash denial-of- interest wire is published AND the European Commission opens a Phase II review of any of the prior approaches — all three within any 30-day window. If positioned: exit at next open, do not wait for the stop. If not positioned: remove from watchlist, escalate to portfolio-manager for fresh /decide run including a possible tactical short above EUR 41.
• Uber unwinds its 19.5% block back into the market. Per news.md "what would change this view": this creates an immediate overhang and reprices DHER below EUR 30 mechanically, regardless of where the bid spread sits.
• Talabat suspends trading on DFM or announces a material write-down of its food-delivery business. SOTP floor evaporates.
• DHER management issues a profit warning or revises FY 2026 guidance lower. Operating thesis (already weak; the bid was the carry) loses its supporting facts and management's resistance to EUR 38 becomes untenable to its own shareholders.
• EC Phase II opens AND timing extends beyond 6 months. Per research-verdict assumption #4 and round-2 bull's timing concession. Optionality decay even if the deal eventually clears.
• Glovo Spain labour-court adverse ruling with EU read-across — per news.md catalyst calendar item. Materially raises Glovo classification opex and damages the standalone valuation that bounds the deal-break floor.

What I'm explicitly not doing

• Not buying at spot EUR 38.74. The research-manager's verdict forbids it; the tape (LVN, sub-0.2× ADV close at the high, no options market) confirms it.
• Not initiating any short. Even at EUR 41+ without confirmed second bid. This is consistent with the research-manager's note that the bear won the trade-structure argument at spot but did not earn a short rating. Tactical short above EUR 41 absent a confirmed second bid is admissible per the verdict but is trader-discretion; the standing instruction is no-short until the hard-kill triggers fire.
• Not selling Talabat as a paired hedge. Talabat is the SOTP floor for DHER; shorting it removes the very anchor that makes DHER's deal-break downside bounded. Pair structures here would unwind the protection thesis.
• Not entering via options. Options-flow.md confirms NO_DERIVATIVES_MARKET. Cash equity is the only available expression; structurally that argues for smaller size, not for finding a synthetic.
• Not chasing if Trigger B fires above EUR 39.50. If the confirmation closes above EUR 39.50, stand down — the asymmetry collapses and the second-leg trade becomes a momentum chase, not a structured catalyst entry.
• Not re-arming Trigger A blindly on every pullback. The volume confirmation (≥ 1× 50-day ADV during the pullback session) is the filter that distinguishes a tape-rebuilding pullback from an LVN gap-through. Both look the same on a closing-price chart; they have opposite implications.

Watchlist disposition

ADD to watchlist. Daily monitoring during the 5 June – 15 July window (the densest portion of the news.md catalyst calendar). The watchlist row should encode:

watchlist_row:
  ticker: DHER.DE
  added: 2026-05-27
  current_disposition: staged_long
  triggers:
    A_pullback:
      zone_low: 34.44
      zone_high: 36.11
      volume_min_x_adv: 1.0
      confirmation: hammer_doji_or_two_closes_above_zone_bottom
    B_confirmed_bid:
      close_above: 39.00
      volume_min_x_adv: 1.5
      catalyst_required: uber_third_bid_41_with_board_engagement_OR_doordash_formal_above_40
  hard_kill:
    conditions_required: 3_of_3
    list:
      - uber_formal_withdrawal_30d
      - doordash_denial_wire_30d
      - ec_phase_ii_opens_30d
  expiry: 2026-07-27
  reviewer: portfolio_manager_on_next_leg_or_pullback_or_2026-07-27

Re-evaluate on any of: a close inside the trigger A zone, a news-confirmed third bid, a Jefferies PT change, EC competition review news, or 2026-07-27 (whichever first).

What would change my mind (about this plan, not the thesis)

The thesis-invalidation list above governs the thesis. The following would specifically change the plan structure:

1. A listed options market opens on DHER.DE within 30 days. This is unlikely (XETRA listed-options coverage on DHER is structurally thin and a sudden listing is improbable), but if it happens, Trigger B should be rewritten as a long-call structure with a defined-loss profile, and the size cap could be relaxed because the gap-risk argument disappears.
2. A second sell-side house publishes a target ≥ EUR 45. Jefferies at 42.50 is a single voice. A second top-tier house above 45 would shift T2 upward and could justify relaxing trigger B's "do-not-chase above 39.50" rule by 50–100bp.
3. DHER prints a high-volume rotation through the 34–37 EUR band before any pullback. This would rebuild the volume profile under current price and de-risk Trigger A's volume requirement. Not currently observable; would be evident in OBV and the 34.81–35.78 LVN bucket repopulating.
4. The research-manager updates the verdict in light of new information. This plan is the trader's expression of the current verdict. If the verdict revises (e.g. a fresh /decide run on news), the plan must be re-issued, not patched.